Nigeriarchy 2: The State of Emergency

President Jonathan is criticised for his reactive political policies, but on Monday 13th May 2013 when the Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau declared in a video that he would unleash a spate of kidnappings of women and children in retaliation to the Nigerian government’s actions, the President was pushed to be proactive. The Boko Haram leader swore to carry out violence in response to the imprisonment of relatives of Boko Haram members, maybe the President finally had to REACT and prove that we would not negotiate with terrorists and clamp down on their spurious activities. Currently there are divisions in Nigerian political camps about the Presidential prerogative to institute a State of Emergency in 3 Northern Nigerian states. The President’s reaction was provoked when over a hundred policemen were slaughtered indiscriminately a week before, with no real perpetrators’ captured. I question why there is so much disgruntling about the decision, the President requested help when it was required and perhaps a bit later than he should have done. Nigeria can be likened to a fractured Federation, so arguments whether or not this was a democratic ‘reaction’ by the President, do not resolve the fact that if the President did not act the Federation may no longer exist.

The Presidential REACTION is well overdue; threats of ‘imminent danger’ (constitutional basis for implementing state of emergency) from within and without, an un-trackable death toll and a porous border with unidentifiable terrorist elements infiltrating the Federation require resolution. Collaboration with the Cameroonian government regarding strengthening border control is also a very good reactive measure by the President, but these actions could have predated this dilapidation in cross border communal consciousness, they could have been proactive. Reminiscent of my previous blog post Nigeriarchy, I think we have collapsed into a state of INDISCIPLINE; we have fully denigrated into a Hobbesian place, where there is ‘war of all against all’. The state of emergency has returned us to a State of Nature; in my last post the citizenry was looking up to leadership for a reaction and I think President Jonathan has finally taken a stand. Nigeriarchy I feel like I’m in a Hobbesian place … Nigeria resembles the state of nature where there is a ‘war of all against all’. Thomas Hobbes describes that this ‘state of nature’ comes into being when individuals are seeking their own self serving interests independently within a state. This is reminiscent of Nigeria today, slowly declining into anarchy. Where people can wake up, create their laws and act callously. The basic state relies on a ‘social contract’ which prevents our self serving interests from reaching a state of anarchy, because we sacrifice these caranal interests for a collective sustainable good.

Nigeriarchy alternatives:

State of Emergency VERSUS State of Nigeiarchy
An ideal State of Emergency should equal ZERO TOLERANCE for INDISCIPLINE; what is unfolding is a half baked attempt at peace restoration. Military strategy in the North should probably be covert so that its implementation is swift and the possibility of return to normalcy evident. Some critics view the political policy decision as a show of weakness by the President, but it was very clear that anarchy was the rule of the day in these areas, so admitting and employing a military reaction to this, is the best first step. No alternatives except harsh military action might quell the Nigeriarchy experienced across some states in the Federation. The President’s address to the nation describes that the military will: … “arrest and detain suspects, the taking of possession and control of any building or structure used for terrorist purposes, the lock-down of any area of terrorist operation, the conduct of searches, and the apprehension of persons in illegal possession of weapons.”

State of Emergency VERSUS Amnesty
Amnesty is in direct opposition to the imposition of a State of Emergency. Unfortunately the President is showing his political meekness by allowing this option of amnesty to exist, he should instead declare that the period of negotiating is over and intolerable behaviour will be immediately dealt with.

HISTORY of State of Emergency as interpreted per Nigerian Constitution sec 305

1962 Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa declared State of emergency in response to potential political subversion
1994 President Obasanjo declared a state of emergency in Plateau State in view of religious violent disorder
2011 President Jonathan’s half baked Northern reactionary response at the Local government level
2012 President Jonathan’s opportunity to amend security state of disrepute in the Federation

FRACTURED FEDERATION
What happens after a State of Emergency? What will the implications of a potentially fractured federation be?
- Global perspective: The UN secretary General has expressed his concern that a State of Emergency although necessary may contravene Human Rights, however restoring the basic right of security as a nation will enable Nigeria to restore confidence in global relations. We have to address the probable human rights violations that might occur post the State of Emergency which will subsist in the fractured federation.
- Local perspective: Restoration of the social contract between the state and its people. Proactive policies provided by the President to restore peace.

SIDENOTE
President Jonathan’s decision to allow the Governors remain in power during the State of Emergency is perhaps another example of political meekness, although it is clear that there is no longer need for discord and if it simply keeps them happy by keeping them in there for nominal purposes then why should we argue? If it is indeed the political strategy to appease leaders in the North by maintaining ‘figurehead’ leaders whose powers are trumped by military might, so be it.
The constitution did not exactly delineate the function of the military so this is where we might have slight interpretation issues, and this is potentially why fear may creep across the Federation and fracture its foundation further…

Nigeriarchy… a state where we experience Nigeria’s fractured Federation and rebuild ‘OUR STORY’ for a brighter future.

LIFE RIGHTS TRUMP GUN LIFE- PART ONE

Today is a very significant day for anyone in the media, a day when thoughts and ideas directly influence policy. In the first part of the political process it appears the right to life trumps gun life as revealed in President Obama’s fantastic speech. It is encouraging for all of us who think, talk and write, all who get criticised by the complacent. We are only preparing so that when we become significant in history as drivers of change, similar to Piers Morgan (we live in hope!!). The Gun Control debate will translate into engineered policies to reduce gun related violence in the US. Hopefully 18,000 (approx) gun-related murders in the US will reduce to hundreds and one day will be similar to numbers in Europe that are double-digit on average.

President Obama signed 23 executive actions which are recommendations by the President to track gun ownership and pave way to potential legislation restricting gun control. The executive actions were signed as an executive order which did not require congressional approval. In addition to the order, the President unveiled his proposals to Congress for changes to Gun Life/ Gun Control.

The two key proposals in the ensuing congressional battle will surround the ban on assault weapons, and background checks prior to gun ownership. Assault weapons (AR-15’s specifically) were used in the last 4 mass shootings in the US, and the key argument is that these weapons are designed to kill ONLY; designed for warfare, and do not need to be used as protective weaponry available in homes. The President has also highlighted that even if these weapons are owned, the magazines (or cartridges) should be reduced to 10, preventing mass carnage.  This in itself is the linchpin of the debate; the availability of violent weaponry is directly proportional to the causable damage. We have all been sensitised to both topics courtesy of Piers Morgan and his fantastic work pioneering the debates. We understand why a certain sector of society believes their 2^nd amendment rights are being restricted. However the rights of the children and other members of the society need to be protected by the government, as they have an equal right to safety. Like most political battles the argument is simply whose right TRUMPS whose; the right of the defenceless child/adult who can be attacked with ease, or the right of the recreational gun owner?

Is America symbolic of democracy in action? Is the American President’s reliance on public opinion an important model for other country’s to adopt? To pass through policies, it is important for the government to change ingrained notions and ideas in society, by compelling the population to consider change. Linking America politics to Nigerian politics- as a fledgling democracy the public need to continue to debate and remain engaged because one day the force of the weight of our ideas/notions/beliefs will influence our policymakers to pass through change.

Conundrum – Resolve your fiscal cliff

Disclaimer: I do not know very much about American politics so I have kept this post short and sweet and l extracted a useful metaphor ‘resolve your fiscal cliff’. Loosely translated into fix anything that is bad for your ‘economic’ well being before the New Year, readjust your aspirations, dreams or relevant career goals. For those who watch the day time ITV show Countdown, ‘fiscal cliff’ translates into figure out that ‘conundrum’ in your life (gives me so much joy when I visualise the 9 letter word, a Countdown app is available for those who want to scramble just letters and not life for now).

Timing is a crucial factor in politics and political legislation. Before 2013, the US senate will deliberate on the fate of tax payers. President Obama is fighting hard to protect tax payers who earn below $250,000 from the higher tax rates, this is my over simplistic analysis of the situation. However there has to be more revenue generated to sustain The United States, in addition to severe spending cuts there has to be huge taxes impositions to make the books balance better in 2013 and beyond. I promise to study the outcome of the deal when it is published and dedicate a post to it.

American politics always makes me think about matters close to my heart in Nigeria. Why did the Nigerian Senate not sit and deliberate about a bill that would determine the fate of the Nigerian economy in 2013? Instead they thought it would be too arduous to spend the last few weeks of the year discussing the Petroleum Industry Bill, and have carried the chaos over the cliff.

2013 has happened for some already, in the last few hours think about the ‘fiscal cliff’ in your life, and strategise how to get over it.

Happy New Year!! Thank you all so much for encouraging me to write; prepare yourselves to read more in 2013!!

Mental Wealth

Sometimes a knee jerk reaction to blogging doesn’t capture the appropriate sentiment. Before I descend into a diatribe of the ‘voice’ and the ‘speaker’, I write on something very topical because the strings resound clearly within. I couldn’t blog initially because of my associated grief, but distance and reflection make it possible now.

My heart still resides with the parents and families of those lost in the Sandy Hook massacre. Why it had to happen is something that we can never reconcile and we will never understand.

‘Mental Wealth’ made me think about the innate abilities we have within ourselves, which rely on nature and nurture to make us who we are. The age old debate of nature vs nurture plays a large role in the Adam Lanza debates, because in a case of a tweak in mental health, it is arguable that nurture has a larger role than nature in bringing out the ‘wealth’. A child nurtured in a culture of violence, can manifest extreme activity if without full control of their mental wealth.

ASD and Mental Wealth

I like to view Autistic Spectrum Disorders (ASD) as a rainbow, because for parents facing the huge responsibility to manage their child’s gift, ‘somewhere over the rainbow,’ there is the semblance of perfection that every other parents claims to have. I worry about the ‘mental wealth’ of this debate as it is easy to assume that every child facing the challenges autism presents may be somewhat wired to be the next young violent school sadist. Jodi Picoult’s ‘House Rules’ is a  fictional book which reifies a mother who has to manage a child with ASD; characterising how social aberration may be misconstrued as violent, a striking example of when lack of communication at certain times does not mean brewing social violence. It will be very sad if what comes out of the Lanza case is a further misunderstanding of ASD.

Instead this is an opportunity to spend more time researching and striving to manage the condition a bit better. In a very simplistic way it is possible to have mental health issues with or without ASD, mental health issues will probably be easier to detect with a child with full mental wealth versus a child on the ASD spectrum who is able to conceal certain thoughts and actions because of the inability to communicate as accurately as possible. A combination of ASD and other mental health issues is a dimension that needs to be explored further.

My initial reaction was that Adam Lanza reminded me of Kevin the fictional character in Shriver’s ‘We need to talk about Kevin’. The similarity was uncanny because I questioned why when parents with an unmanageable explosive ‘mental wealth’ child, could not seek state support to assist with the challenges they faced. Comparison was obviously not exact as Kevin was a minor and Adam not anymore, however both stories reflected the fact that parents require robust support.

A comparison of the mental wealth across three continents was something I tasked myself with once I heard the news and it made me realise how difficult it is to qualify a learning disability combined with a mental disorder. The difficulty in the US, having interviewed a praticising physician is that the mental health laws are very basic, so once you can take care of yourself and will not harm yourself, the state bears no responsibility over you, or the debate surrounding your well being. I think this is also the time for laws from Europe to influence the mental health laws in the US. There is an avid debate in Scotland for example to exclude individuals on the Autistic spectrum from the definition of mental health laws which enables the Scottish state to ‘incarcerate that person or enforce medication under the Mental Health Act’. The debate in Scotland is literally that ASD is a learning disability and not a mental disability. However I think what all countries have to debate and research on balance, is what happens when someone on the ASD spectrum has a further chemical imbalance, how can this be detected and supported. This is where the research should begin, and on this topic the citizenry should be educated, the point at which we can all ask more questions and learn.

To lose a child is like to lose a part of your soul that will never be replaced. Rest in Peace little angels, I hope your families find peace on earth. Celebrated teachers were lost to protect you, may their families find comfort too. For all the kids left behind who have dealt with the trauma, may they find healing.

PS I applaud Piers Morgan and his contribution to the ongoing Gun Laws debate, this is a case of geopolitical influence where positive thoughts and laws from Europe can influence the US political landscape.

Spare the Rod or the Reward- Nigerian Petroleum Industry + M&Ms

At dinner with a friend of mine this weekend, I was told about Levitt’s potty training thought experiment. I found it fascinating how a 3 year old for the reward of M&M’s would pee several times instead of peeing all in one go, to get what she rationalised was due to her. We discussed how we had to be intelligent parents and always be ahead of our kids with our individualised ‘reward’ systems. Levitt’s potty training experiment is a great example of how incentives can have unpredictable effects. Kids are able to understand the system and find loopholes and disobey rules, get the rewards, because they are ‘entitled’- BECAUSE they understand the system so well, that they can cut corners, and at this stage it is very cute. Now relating this analogy to a country, unless the systems are continually updated and upgraded, it makes it so easy for rewards to be ‘misplaced’. Similar to Levitt’s potty training conclusion, the reward system brings about ‘unintended’ consequences unless it is constantly modified and updated, and for a nation like Nigeria, the reality that the reward system is dependent on the future of many lives means a lot of hard work must go in now.

The Ribadu led task forces’ 6month report simply confirmed the conclusion that a lot of hard work is required in the petroleum sector. The report synthesised the ‘available’ facts and confirmed that the government had to tighten its belt, earn a lot more money from the resource, demand what it is due and reform the sector by upgrading the outdated legistlation that governs it. If you are anything like me you will save the report and use it as a reference, so that you can remember how the country should be earning revenues from petroleum. You will also use this as a reference point to review the long awaited Peteroleum Industry Bill (PIB), when it finally becomes enshrined in the Nigerian law books.

The Ribadu report has been in the press for the last two weeks, and the government will probably do anything to discredit it. Naming Oransaye and Oti (two members of Ribadu’s team) Board members of the NNPC during the task force process, is not only a conflict of interest, but undisciplined government behaviour with direct intent perhaps, to ensure that the hard work put into the report would be made redundant. Wisdom however dictates that we should deduce from the report what is essential to improve visibility in the sector. I was so glad when the numbers were deemed ‘falsifiable’, because firstly numbers are not my thing and secondly in the short time span for review, there was not enough time to independently verify data in the report and unbundle the data.

What falsifiable means is simply that the theory is up for scientific debate, even if the numbers are not fully correct this time, it is a template that can be worked on for facts to be proven in the future, so from a philosophical point of view this is a very worthwhile study/report. The reality is numbers are redundant in Nigeria because of the deliberate efforts by the government not to automate information; a 6month process cannot data mine 10 years worth of data without any comparative data source. This links in with an economist article last week, which comments on the fact that Nigeria as the largest oil producer in Africa should be able to calculate its daily oil production http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21564906-goodluck-jonathan-says-he-wants-reform-oil-industry-really It is easy to criticise the Ribadu report, but apart from the KPMG, PWC, HSBC, DFID AND CBN numbers they got their hands on, how else can they verify the numbers provided in the report? Makes you realise that Nigerians to some extent do not like honesty, the Ribadu team provided a report with limitations clearly spelt out, surely this is the first STEP to visibility we are striving for.

What was the most interesting thing that Ribadu found out????

• “Nigeria being the world’s only major oil producer that sells 100 percent of its crude to private commodities traders, rather than directly to refineries.”
• Production could drop by 20percent by 20/20- Vision 20/20 takes on a whole new meaning
• Why is the government reluctant to optimise revenue flow from petroleum industry to federal government? For example 15 August 2011, gas flaring increased from N10 to$3.50 – new rate is approx 500 naira why isn’t this enforced today?

We are in trouble because:

• There is a low demand for Nigerian hydrocarbon products globally
• There is low investment in the sector, and as a result exploration has reduced. The nation has not made the necessary investment ($3.7bn estimated by NNPC), to increase the proven oil reserves and to upgrade drilling equipment to maintain current levels of output in 2014.
• The per barrel earning reduction due to outdated technology and drilling infrastructure and outdated reservoirs – the projection is that the government will learn LESS from onshore oil (Nigerian government has larger percentage share in onshore agreements) due to the growth in alternative finance mechanisms.

We have all gone past the stage of feeling entitled to own large oil reserves, the incentives the government gets for sitting on a minefield are long gone, and these have to have translatable rewards for the citizens. If the petroleum industry is having huge difficulty balancing the country’s revenues, it is evident that the Nigerian petroleum sector requires a lot of discipline, what system is required is the question? Corporal punishment, ‘spare the rod’ and spoil our flood of national resources, may be the required alternative to secure a future nation for our children. I agree with the Ribadu reports’ projections, the government needs to tighten its belt; the only way this can be done is through an automated, disciplined and visible process. Simply said, dear GEJ getting the PIB into law is simply not good enough anymore, understanding that it is a constant work in progress legislation is more pertinent. The Nigerian government needs to change its potty training approach, so that trickles of our resource do not get incentivised by M&M’s; we have to structure and police constantly changing legislation surrounding our coveted resource.

‘Blonded’ by basic American Politics

I coined an old word in a new way last week, ‘BLONDED’, and I use it to refer to instances or occurrences where I am not so versed in expressing my opinion. For example, I am blonded by basic American elections and politics.

An educated source[1] of mine assisted me understand, so I am less blonded now, and I feel a duty to share with all those who remain as clueless as I was.

Four years ago when Obama won the election, I was glued to CNN (like most others globally), watching the count from all the states come in. I stayed up and waited for the results, but I didn’t really get why it was so important, and what these numbers actually meant. I get it now; we waited up to see what would happen in the Midwest states, the ‘swing states’. These states are the most important in the American elections because they determine if the Democrats or the Republicans win.

To demystify further it took me a while to figure out the difference in identity and policies of the Democrats and the Republicans. The Democrats have a more socialist (for those in the UK, a labour like agenda) approach and the Republicans have a more conservative agenda. Party choice becomes a lifestyle choice, which determines voting behaviour and is very distinct and state centric. Certain states across the US have either a Democratic or Republican agenda, so it is easy for the candidates to determine what states to target their efforts to win votes.

Voting in America is glamourised by theatrical displays of oratory via a series of debates; round one 2012, most people were disillusioned with Obama’s performance, in the second debate last night, the opinion polls put Obama back on top. This takes me back to the days of the ancient Greeks and the associated sophistry; where the wisest men came to the arena and spoke about leadership. The only issue is that in the 21^st century, wisdom is no longer the trump card, debating is used as a tool of differentiation, social engagement and voting power.

Obama and Romney last night characterised what was a first class display of a two party political system. It was almost like a war, where the incumbent was on the defensive, and the challenger fully on the offensive. This indeed is what politics should resemble, even in the not so mature multiparty emergent democracies globally. Those in power must remain on the defensive and defend their policies, while the burden of truth remains on the shoulders of those vying for power. Critics have disparaged Romney for telling a lot of untruths, whether this is the case or not, his purpose in the election process, is to throw doubt or to an extent discredit the ‘defence’ and weaken it so that opposition finds a loophole/ pathway into power. Reminiscent of The Art of War, deception is necessary in the battle of American leadership “A military operation involves deception. Even though you are competent, appear incompetent…”[2] In my blonded opinion, Romney is doing a good job, providing an alternative.                        

An alternative in times of austerity is always attractive. Globally there is horror about Romney’s response on the woman issue (this was the highlight in the debate for me yesterday), his response was very honest and an alternative to the status quo and has actually worked in many private companies. I do not believe Romney’s response objectified women; he suggested women would like to have dinner with their kids, and women to a larger extent deserve positive discrimination due to years of marginalisation in the workplace. I think the issue is that Romney might not be as articulate as he would like to be, and having suggested he had #bindersfullofwomen his intention was misconstrued, as he must have intended to explain that giving women the right opportunities based on merit requires accurate databasing and repositioning. Romney also proposed flexible working arrangements for women as a good alternative to rights of equal pay. The argument about equal pay does not address the fact that women are not singular and possibly have different interests, Romney showed in fact that the question was loaded and needed to be deconstructed and he provided an alternative way of looking at a key question relating to women. As a woman I have the right to the ‘choice’ to be a mother and a high earner, and if the government focuses on providing a platform to allow this to happen, this is a great alternative to the status quo of the uber woman aiming only to break through the ‘glass ceiling’ as Obama proffers.

I am no longer ‘blonded’, I understand why the opposition have an easier job, and why it is important for the incumbent to always defend with passion. In the art of war, although the fight is based on subtlety- without passion, the battle is lost. “According to Sun Tzu, it is the unemotional, reserved, calm, detached warrior who wins, not the hothead seeking vengeance and not the ambitious seeker of fortune”. (Cleary, Thomas)[3]

 

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[1] Mr Alli

[2] The Art of War. Tzu, Sun, 1988

[3] The Art of War. Tzu, Sun, 1988

Nigeriarchy

At this time we should mourn with the families that have lost their loved ones… It is a very sad time, a time for thought…

INDEPENDENCE MASSACARE

Gunmen massacred students and locals indiscriminately, at the Federal Polytechnic of Mubi, Adamawa, with a death toll of 46.

MOB MADNESS

4 UNIPORT (University of Port Harcourt) students were killed, the key issue is that individuals took the law into their own hands, and murdered 3 students of the university and an associate. Law and order must be restored, and we await a restoration of justice in the community of Aluu, Port Harcourt.

I feel like I’m in a Hobbesian place … Nigeria resembles the state of nature where there is a ‘war of all against all’. Thomas Hobbes describes that this ‘state of nature’ comes into being when individuals are seeking their own self serving interests independently within a state. This is reminiscent of Nigeria today, slowly declining into anarchy. Where people can wake up, create their laws and act callously.

The basic state relies on a ‘social contract’ which prevents our self serving interests from reaching a state of anarchy, because we sacrifice these caranal interests for a collective sustainable good. In my previous post, I spoke about seeking ‘OUR STORY’ a future for Nigeria which reifies the collective. The atrocities which have occurred in the last two weeks once again underscore the NEED for the story.

We have a huge problem, our ‘Leviathan’ (Hobbe’s imagery of a political state, which mimics a huge human body) appears to have a severed head and the body is left directionless in the ‘state of nature’. Nigerians are hoping for their leader to speak out and provide the cohesive strength from the top, we can no longer SOLELY rely on our leaders for cohesion, and a sense of identity. Rebuilding civil society is a challenge for communities; maybe we have to rethink a bottom up approach. While they sort themselves out at the top, at the bottom we need to teach the ‘future’ about respect and love for the property and lives of others. Do state governments have a larger role to play in the future of the federation, should their roles be redefined?

David Mark commented that we should use these as an opportunity to make actionable the capital punishment statue in our constitution, I do not agree with this approach, because there is a problem, the punishment will not solve the problem of social degradation. It is not a conversation about crime and punishment, how do we encourage every citizen to believe in the state that will secure its collective future?

How do we prevent our decline into a state of nature where there is a ‘war of all against all’? We need to rebuild a state we are all proud to be part of… we need to think about it, talk about it, write about it, ACT on what we have thought, spoken and written about, and HOPE we have a visionary who will ensure all we have thought spoken and written about will be bought into. We have to start from the bottom up…

Sometimes you can only think, because the act seems gargantuan- but thought without action is labour lost (Confucius), but action without thought is perilous